The Odds of Being Killed by an Immigrant


I keep seeing tweets and articles saying the odds of an immigrant killing a citizen of the United States are approximately zero. Obviously those calculations assume that our past experiences do a good job of predicting what happens next. And this is good news. Really, really, good news.

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Scott Adams is dumb.

He argues that the immigration is safe because it has always been safe is like arguing that we shouldn’t fear nuclear attacks or climate change since they’re never destroyed the world. This is a bad argument.

We have hundreds of years of immigration data and it’s always the same. Immigrants come, people complain. They integrate into society and their grand kids complain about the next wave of immigrants.

We have hundred of data points about weapons. Ever weapon system gets used. We also have hundred of data points on how societies are effected by climate change. Also not good.

It’s totally rational to treat immigration differently than nukes and climate change. And it’s shockingly idiotic to conflate them.